In its first projection on India post-demonetisation, the World Bank has lowered the country’s GDP growth estimate for this fiscal to 7 per cent, from its earlier estimate of 7.6 per cent made in June last year.
“Growth in India is estimated to reach 7 per cent in financial year (FY) 2017…reflecting a modest downgrade to India’s expansion,” the multilateral lender said in its Global Economic Prospects report released here on Tuesday.
“Unexpected demonetisation – the phasing out of large denomination currency notes – weighed on growth in the third quarter of FY 2017,” it said.
“Weak industrial production and manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes further suggest a setback to activity in the fourth quarter of FY 2017,” it added.
Last week, India’s official statistician in New Delhi also lowered the country’s gross domestic product growth estimates for 2016-17 to 7.1 per cent, compared with the 7.6 per cent growth in 2015-16.
While announcing its monetary policy review last month, the Reserve Bank of India acknowledged the demonetisation factor and lowered their gross value added (GVA) growth estimates for the current fiscal to 7.1 per cent from the 7.6 per cent forecast earlier.
On November 8, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the demonetisation of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes, saying the move was aimed to eliminate black money, counterfeit currency and terror financing.